ADULTS NEWLY INFECTED WITH HIV IN BOTSWANA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of adults ages 15 and above newly infected with HIV in Botswana from 1990 as“ 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 as“ 2025. The paper applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the K series under consideration is an I variable.