WAYS TO DEVELOP MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF HARMFUL ORGANISMS OF FORESTRY CROPS

Abstract

The ways and principles of developing mathematical models for forecasting the development and spread of harmful organisms of forestry crops are described. At the same time, the features of the development of mathematical models, the possibility of predicting the dynamics of populations of forestry pests, the use of available data on the characteristics of the predicted object, the processing of these data by mathematical methods, obtaining a dependence linking these characteristics with time, and calculating with the help of the found dependence of the characteristics of the studied object at a given time. An example of the use of a mathematical model in determining the fertility of winter scoops in nurseries for the cultivation of seedlings of forest and ornamental plants is given.