TOTAL NEW HIV INFECTIONS IN CAMEROON A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Cameroon from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests confirm that, B, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Using the AIC as the model selection criterion, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Cameroon will decline sharply over the out-of-sample period. Our model predicts that the country is likely to win the war against HIV by around 2030. In fact, by 2029, the Cameroon is likely to record approximately 1000 total new HIV infections and by 2030, it will not be surprising to record zero new HIV infections in the country.