ANALYZING DIABETES MELLITUS CASES AT GWERU PROVINCIAL HOSPITAL

Abstract

In this study, the ANN approach was employed in forecasting Diabetes Mellitus (DM) cases attended to at Gweru Provincial Hospital (GPH). For this study, DM cases have been classified into two basic pathophysiological categories, that is, type 1 DM (DM1, reffered to as variable Y) and type 2 DM (DM2, reffered to as variable X). The employed data covers the period January 2010 to December 2019, for each variable under consideration. The forecast evaluation criteria of the applied models show that the models are suitable for forecasting DM cases recorded at GPH. The results of the study show that DM2 incidence will remain more prevalent than DM1 incidence in GPH catchment areas. The study offers a 2-fold policy prescription: [i] GPH should, through continuous health education programs, continue to train workers in effective detection and management of DM; [2] GPH should, through educational campaigns, educate patients on DM, especially on the concepts of self-care and good care-seeking attitude. In this regard, there is need also to disseminate information on healthy diets and regular exercise.