MODELING AND FORECASTING MAJOR DEPRESSION CASES AT KWEKWE GENERAL HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM A BOX-JENKINS “CATCH ALL” MODEL

Abstract

This study employs monthly time series data on newly diagnosed Major Depression (MD) cases at Kwekwe General Hospital (KGH) from January 2010 to December 2019; to predict MD cases over the period Janaury 2020 to December 2021. Unit root tests basically confirm that the MD series is integrated of order one. The paper applied the Box-Jenkins “catch all” model, that is; the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂ model. Analysis of the residuals of the applied model shows that the model is quite stable and suitable for forecasting MD cases at KGH over the out-of-sample period. The results of this study basically indicate that MD cases at KGH are likely to increase over the out-of-sample period, but at a decreasing rate. The study offers a 6-fold policy recommendation in order to improve MD management at KGH.