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This study employs monthly time series data on newly diagnosed Major Depression (MD) cases at Kwekwe General Hospital (KGH) from January 2010 to December 2019; to predict MD cases over the period Janaury 2020 to December 2021. Unit root tests basically confirm that the MD series is integrated of order one. The paper applied the Box-Jenkins “catch all” model, that is; the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model. Analysis of the residuals of the applied model shows that the model is quite stable and suitable for forecasting MD cases at KGH over the out-of-sample period. The results of this study basically indicate that MD cases at KGH are likely to increase over the out-of-sample period, but at a decreasing rate. The study offers a 6-fold policy recommendation in order to improve MD management at KGH.
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