OPEN DEFECATION IN CHAD: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Benin from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2022. This study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODH series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (4, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented forecasting model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Benin is likely to decline over the period 2018 – 2022, from 67% to 66% of the total population. This means that by 2022, open defecation in Chad would have reduced by a merely 1%!!! This is simply unacceptable and it points to the fact that the practice of open defecation in Chad has become habitual and strongly persistant. The good news is that, with adequate commitment, it is possible to end open defecation in Chad. The study suggested a 3- fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, particularly by the government of Chad.