OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.