TOTAL NEW HIV INFECTIONS IN VIETNAM A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Vietnam from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, C, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Vietnam is projected to decrease significantly by 80.2% from the estimated 4743 new infections in 2019 to approximately 937 new infections by 2023. Approximately four years from now, Vietnam could materialize an AIDS-free society.