TOTAL NEW HIV INFECTIONS IN VIETNAM A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Authors

  • Dr. Smartson. P. Nyoni ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Mr. Thabani Nyoni Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Keywords:

HIV infections, Box-Jenkins ARIMA, materialize an AIDS-free society

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Vietnam from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, C, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Vietnam is projected to decrease significantly by 80.2% from the estimated 4743 new infections in 2019 to approximately 937 new infections by 2023. Approximately four years from now, Vietnam could materialize an AIDS-free society.

Downloads

Published

2021-01-22

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

TOTAL NEW HIV INFECTIONS IN VIETNAM A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH. (2021). JournalNX - A Multidisciplinary Peer Reviewed Journal, 129-136. https://repo.journalnx.com/index.php/nx/article/view/699

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 1 2 3 4 5 > >>