MALE URETHRAL DISCHARGE CASES AT GWERU PROVINCIAL HOSPITAL IN ZIMBABWE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM A BOX-JENKINS “CATCH ALL” MODEL

Abstract

In this research paper, the SARIMA model has been used to model and forecast Urethral Discharge in Men (UDM) at Gweru Provincial Hospital (GPH) in Zimbabwe. The study covers the period January 2010 to December 2019. The out-of-sample forecasts range over the period January 2020 to December 2021. The residual analysis of the SARIMA model shows that the model applied in this study is quite stable and suitable for forecasting UDM at GPH. The forecasts show a generally upwards trajectory of UDM cases at GPH over the period January 2020 – December 2021, characterized by seasonal peaks in December of each year. The paper offers a three-fold policy recommendation for use by the GPH health executive.