TOTAL NEW HIV INFECTIONS IN MALAYSIA A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Malaysia from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests indicate that, G, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The residual correlogram further reveals that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Malaysia is likely to continue on a gradual downwards trajectory over the period 2019 – 2030. By 2030, new HIV infections in Malaysia would have declined by approximately 6.2%.