PAEDIATRIC NEW HIV INFECTIONS IN NIGERIA A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of children (ages 0 – 14) newly infected with HIV in Nigeria from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of children who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The paper applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, M, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The inverse root of the MA polynomial further reveals that the presented model is stable. The residual correlogram indicates that the residuals of the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model are not serially correlated and furthermore, the normality test of the residuals of the applied model are also normally distributed; thus confirming its adequacy. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in children is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory, over the period 2019 – 2030; from the estimated 25735 to approximately 44823 by 2030. The study basically recommends the government of Nigeria to intensively engage on PMTCT programmes amongst other measures.