ARIMA FORECASTING OF THE PREVALENCE OF ANEMIA AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN IN JORDAN

Abstract

Anemia, a disease caused by a reduction in the hemoglobin levels in the blood, has become a more serious public health problem in Jordan, especially among pregnant women. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in Jordan from 1990 – 2018, the study attempts to make forecasts for the period 2017 – 2025. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AJ the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in Jordan will rise sharply over the period 2017 – 2025, from about 38% to almost 48.7%. The study, amongst other recommendations, encourages the government of Jordan to intensify its support to pregnant women; especially through the routine supplementations with iron and folate.