OPEN DEFECATION IN BENIN: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Benin from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2022. This research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODB series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further point to the notion that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Benin will slightly decline over the period 2018 – 2022, from 53% to 49.71% of the total population. Clearly, open defecation is likely to remain one of the major public health issues in Benin in future unless better sanitation policies are effectively implemented in the country. In order to help reinforce the effectiveness of already existing Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) policy frameworks, the study suggested a four-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Benin.