OPEN DEFECATION IN ZAMBIA A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Zambia from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the K series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are stationary in levels and also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Zambia is likely to decline, but generally, slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 18.9% to almost 17.7% of the total population. The study finally put forward a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the Zambian government.