OPEN DEFECATION IN TOGO: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Based on annual time series data on the number of open defecators in Togo from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2022. The study uses the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODT series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further uncover that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of open defecators in Togo is likely to decline over the period 2018 – 2022, from 47% to 43.32% of the total population. This implies that, open defecation will remain a public health issue in Togo, even after 2022. However, it is possible to end open defecation in Togo, especially if the government is committed to do so. The study suggested a basic two-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration.