ARIMA FORECASTING OF THE PREVALENCE OF ANEMIA AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Abstract

There is no doubt anemia in pregnancy is a huge health problem for both mother and child, especially in low-income countries such as Papua New Guinea. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women in Papua New Guinea from 1990 – 2018, the study attempts to make forecasts for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AP, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia among women who are pregnant in Papua New Guinea is likely to rise sharply over the period 2017 – 2025, from approximately 45.1% to around 48.5%. In order to reverse the possibility of a sharp resurgence in the prevalence of anemia in pregnant women in the country, the study, amongst other recommendations; encourages the government of Papua New Guinea to intensify and expand its support to pregnant women through the routine supplementations with iron and folate.