ADULTS NEWLY INFECTED WITH HIV IN NIGERIA A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Nigeria from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the C series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram of the model and the inverse roots of the AR/MA polynomials further reveal that the presented ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Nigeria will go up from the estimated 101754 new infections in 2019 to approximately 114883 by 2030. The results of this study indicate that Nigeria is lagging far behind in terms of “wiping out the virus”. Indeed, the country’s achievable vision of ending HIV by 2030 will no longer be achieved. 2020-10-11