ANALYZING GENITAL ULCER DISEASE CASES IN MALES AND FEMALES AT GWERU DISTRICT HOSPITAL

Abstract

In this study, ANN models were applied in analyzing Genital Ulcer Disease (GUD) cases, that is, for males (GUDM) and females (GUDF) at Gweru District Hospital (GDH). The employed data covers the period January 2010 to December 2019 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January 2020 to December 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria of the applied models indicate that the models are quite adequate in predicting GUDM and GUDF incidence in Gweru urban district over the out-of-sample period. The results of the study basically indicate that GUDM cases are always more than GUDF cases and this has been projected to persist into the out-of-sample period. In order to prevent and control GUD incidence in the urban district of Gweru, a 2-fold policy recommendation has been put forward.